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  • Lecce have won only two of their 13 home games.
  • Milan haven’t lost to a promoted side since 2018.
  • Lecce have lost six of their eight top-half home clashes

Milan Must Step up

With no Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Stefano Pioli is a little short on characters in this Milan side ahead of the run-in. The Rossoneri are in seventh with nine games to go and they are out for three points in their return to league action. After a solid 0-0 at Juventus last weekend in the Coppa Italia, more will be expected of Pioli and his men.

The spectre of another summer of change hangs over Milan, with Ralf Rangnick seemingly waiting in the wings to be the latest to try and transform this side. While they are in need of improvement around the pitch, that shouldn’t hold them back against a poor Lecce side.

Advantage Milan?

Milan have lost only two of their 31 Serie A meetings against Lecce; in this period there have been 18 Milan wins and 11 draws. History does favour the Rossoneri, as does the league table. Lecce are 18th in the league and battling against the drop. They are aiming to climb out in the run-in, but their home record could send them for a speedy return to Serie B.

Lecce have lost six and won just twice at home all season. They’ve conceded two goals per game at their own ground, letting in 11 goals in their last two league games. On top of that, the visitors can be confident here given their strong record against Serie A’s newcomers. Milan have not lost against a newly promoted team since April 2018, in a match against Benevento: since then, the Rossoneri seven wins and five draws in such matches.

Rossoneri on for Europe

We think that AC Milan will take another step towards Europe this weekend, and that is reflected in our match predictions. Lecce have conceded 56 goals in Serie A this season and they are unlikely to hold off this Milan side. The Rossoneri have six wins in nine meetings with the sides behind them in the table. With Lecce losing six of eight encounters with top half sides at home, the visitors are the value option here.

Milan are in a good position to take advantage of the Lecce defence, but they should be worried about the fact that the hosts have scored in all but two of their home games so far. Milan have shipped 1.4 goals per game on their travels, so we’re backing Lecce to get a goal in a 2-1 home defeat.

Ante Rebic could be vital for Milan here, despite his moment of madness against Juventus last weekend. While he has picked up a Serie A suspension, he won’t be banned for this one. That’s good news for Milan, as he has scored six of their last 10 goals in the league. With Lecce looking vulnerable at the back, we round out our predictions with Rebic to score anytime.

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