- Brescia are without Mario Balotelli, who has scored almost a quarter of their Serie A goals.
- Fiorentina have scored a goal per home game this season.
- 7 of Brescia’s 9 away defeats have seen fewer than 4 goals.
- 10 of Fiorentina’s last 11 games have seen under 3.5 goals.
Fiorentina on the Fence
Fiorentina are in a unique position as the league restarts. They sit only six points off the European places, while their young squad is seen as a benefit ahead of the restart. However, they’re closer to the drop zone as they’re only five points clear of the bottom three. Their season is on a knife-edge going into this weekend’s clash.
Fortunately for Fiorentina they have a straightforward clash in prospect. They host a Brescia side who aren’t in a good position. They make this trip bottom of the table, with owner Massimo Cellino claiming that he only agreed to the restart because they had no other option financially. They don’t have much of a sporting reason to return, with the club nine points shy of safety after a dire campaign.
The visitors have produced only four victories all season, so they’re unlikely to secure the 20 points they need at a minimum to stay in the top flight. To make matters worse, they are struggling for this clash with Mario Balotelli missing out. The striker is on his way out of Brescia, while he’s now locked in a legal battle during what was meant to be a homecoming.
Balotelli’s return to Brescia was hailed as a huge moment for both player and club. He had highs during his year back in Italy, while Balotelli leaves as their top scorer with five goals. It’s a blow for both that things have ended this way, but it really hurts Brescia for the run-in. He scored nearly a quarter of their goals. Brescia are further hit by the absence of all-action midfielder Sandro Tonali through injury. Add in the absence of defender Andrea Cistana further hits the spine of this side, so Brescia are distant outsiders here.
Fiorentina’s campaign has been hit by poor displays at the Artemio Franchi, with the hosts low on home wins. We don’t expect that to be a problem against a Brescia side who have lost nine of their 13 trips this season, but we do think it could impact the quality here. Brescia have scored only nine times in those away matches so far, but Fiorentina have scored 13 times in 13 home games. Our predictions reflect that form as this could be another low scoring game.
It’s hardly a surprise that the hosts have experienced some tight games at home this season. They’ve seen under 2.5 goals in 62% of their matches here, while 10 of their last 11 have seen fewer than four goals. Each of la Viola’s home wins have come by a single goal, while they are facing a Brescia side who have seen under 3.5 goals in seven of nine losses away from home this term. Following that form, Fiorentina to win and under 3.5 goals is our pick. We’re also backing a 1-0 win for Fiorentina as our correct score prediction.
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